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With long-term interest rates rising, with housing peaking, with the refi stimulus set to wane, and with businesses so keen on boosting productivity instead of payrolls, a widening trade gap would be one more potential drag on growth.
Many middle class families that took out second mortgages during the '90s refi craze are now skating on thin ice. The average American family saw its credit card debt rise 53 percent during the '90s.
As enamored as the household sector was in trading technology stocks for fun and profit just a few years back, playing mortgage rates and the refi boom is today a much more commanding inflationary psychology.
The bottom line is that the recovery no longer depends on the temporary lift from tax cuts and refi money.
Lifts from tax cuts and refi cashouts, plus strong weekly reports on back-to-school sales and car buying in August, suggest real outlays could rise 5% this quarter.
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